UMS Holdings – Above Expectations

November 2022

Excerpts from UOBKayHian report

UMS Holdings (SGX: 558)

  • UMS Holdings (UMS) 1H22 earnings of S$40m (+23% yoy) are above our expectations, forming 65% of our 2022F estimate as UMS continues to benefit from solid semiconductor demand worldwide.
  • UMS’s order forecasts remain strong as its key customer expects increased sales despite ongoing supply chain challenges. We raised our 2022 and 2023 EPS by 27% and 35%.

Maintain BUY with a 3%-lower target price of S$1.40 (reduce PE peg to mean of 11x 2023F, from 2SD of 15.5x 2022F).

1H22 earnings benefited from solid semiconductor worldwide

The company 1H22 earnings of S$40m (+23% yoy) are above our expectations, forming 65% of our full year estimate as UMS continues to benefit from the solid semiconductor demand worldwide and favourable tailwinds in the recovering aerospace sector.

Robust revenue growth across all sectors

For 1H22, semiconductor sales increased 41% to S$149m, while aerospace revenue more than doubled by 139% to about $7m. Sales in the “others” category jumped by 89% to S$15m.

Semiconductor Integrated System sales grew 20% to S$62m. Component sales also shot up 62% to S$87m. All of UMS’s key geographies experienced growth.

Malaysia and the “others” market reported the strongest growth, clocking in triple-digit sales increases. Revenue in Malaysia grew 131% and revenue in the “others” market vaulted 175% in 1HF22.

Sales in Singapore went up by 47%, while revenue in Taiwan and the US increased by 18% each.

Orders forecasts remain strong

Its key customer expects increased sales despite the impact of ongoing supply chain challenges in FY22. Its key customer also announced that the accelerating of technology inflections will enable it to outgrow the semiconductor market in the years ahead.

This strong customer forecast is good news for UMS’s growth momentum in the coming months. According to SEMI, global sales of total
semiconductor manufacturing equipment by original equipment manufacturers are forecast to grow 14.7% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023.

VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION

Maintain BUY with a 3%-lower target price of S$1.40 (from S$1.45), after lowering our PE peg to 11x based on mean PE, down from 15.5x, +2SD of historical average.

This is to account for the late-cycle of the semiconductor industry, which is typically followed by a subsequent slowdown/decline in industry earnings. Also, we roll over our valuation base year to 2023F from 2022F.

UMS share price chart
UMS share price chart

You can find the full report here and the company website here

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