Kimly Group – Coffee shops operator

June 2022

Excerpts from CGS CIMB report

  • We see tailwinds subsiding due to Singapore’s significantly-relaxed Covid-19 measures since Apr. Workers return to office could impact Kimly’s footfall.
  • We also expect further margin compression in 2HFY9/22F arising from higher raw material and staff costs. We lower our FY22-24F EPS by 9-17%.
  • Downgrade to Hold with a lower TP of S$0.41, now pegged to 15.4x CY23F P/E (vs. 16.8x previously), based on -0.5 s.d. from 5-year historical mean.

Kimly 1HFY22 helped by Tenderfresh contribution and easing restrictions

Kimly reported 1HFY9/22 net profit of S$19m (+6% hoh, -15% yoy), in line with our  expectation at 51% of our full-year forecast but slightly below consensus’ at 48% of Bloomberg consensus FY22F.

Revenue rose to S$157m (+35% hoh, +28% yoy) due to higher-than-expected contribution (S$37.4m) from newly-acquired Tenderfresh (consolidated since 1 Oct 2021).

However, this was offset by higher cost pressure which negatively impacted margins. An interim dividend of 0.56 scts (flat yoy) was proposed.

Singapore’s reopening could impact Kimly’s footfall

Singapore dropped most of its pandemic restrictions in Apr, with significantly eased border measures and working from home no longer the default.

As the bulk of Kimly’s outlets are located in residential heartlands, we think it could be impacted by lower footfall as employees gradually return to their workplaces.

This could be cushioned partially by rising inflation (which might cause downtrading among consumers towards mass-market dining options) and removal of dine-in group size limits (which could especially benefit zichar and drink store sales).

Kimly also announced that its management agreements of nine coffee shops under a third-party brand will be terminated in 2HFY22F, following this brand owner’s internal reorganisation; we estimate c.5% revenue impact on Kimly’s FY23F outlet management segment from this.

Further margin compression from rising costs

Kimly’s OPM shrank 6.2% pts yoy in 1H22 on the back of higher food costs, staff expenses and utilities expenses. While pricing adjustments have been made in 2QFY22, we think those could be insufficient to cover the continued cost elevation in recent months.

We cut our FY22F EPS by 8.7% to factor in lower margins as we think Kimly could see near-term margin pressure due to the time lag in cost past-through.

Kimly has also flagged manpower shortage as the key reason for closing 12 underperforming food stalls; we lower our FY23-24F EPS by 13- 7% to reflect lower store count assumptions.

Kimly valuation/Recommendation

We downgrade Kimly from Add to Hold, as tailwinds subside with post-Covid economy reopening. Our TP declines to S$0.41, now pegged to a lower 15.4x CY23F P/E (-0.5 s.d. from 5-year historical average) from 16.8x previously, in view of the group’s slowing growth prospects.

Upside risks include faster outlet growth, and accretive M&As. Downside risks include weaker footfall, higher cost pressures, and more outlet closures.

Kimly Group
Kimly one year share price

You can find the full report here and the company website here

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