{"id":18871,"date":"2026-01-06T15:26:19","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T07:26:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/?p=18871"},"modified":"2026-06-06T00:35:44","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T16:35:44","slug":"will-the-us-stock-market-crash-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/zh-hans\/will-the-us-stock-market-crash-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the US Stock Market Crash in 2026?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"435\" data-end=\"587\">Many analysts and bloggers have posted an optimistic picture of both the US and Singapore stock market. In this article, I will be on the side of the contrarian and explain why the stock market could crash between 10% to 20% this year.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1524\" data-end=\"1578\">Key Risk Factors That Could Trigger a Crash in 2026<\/h2>\n<h3 data-start=\"1580\" data-end=\"1633\">1. Elevated Valuations, Especially in US Equities<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1635\" data-end=\"1764\">The US market\u2014particularly large-cap technology stocks\u2014has been trading at <strong data-start=\"1710\" data-end=\"1749\">above-historical average valuations<\/strong>. Metrics like:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1766\" data-end=\"1830\">\n<li data-start=\"1766\" data-end=\"1788\">\n<p data-start=\"1768\" data-end=\"1788\">Forward P\/E ratios<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1789\" data-end=\"1830\">\n<p data-start=\"1791\" data-end=\"1830\">Market cap-to-GDP (Buffett Indicator)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1832\" data-end=\"1873\">suggest that expectations are too optimistic.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1875\" data-end=\"1984\"><strong data-start=\"1875\" data-end=\"1884\">Risk:<\/strong> If earnings growth disappoints or economic growth slows sharply, valuations could compress quickly.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2444\" data-end=\"2493\">2. US Recession Risk Still Hasn\u2019t Disappeared<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2495\" data-end=\"2567\">While the US economy has proven resilient, several warning signs remain:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2569\" data-end=\"2670\">\n<li data-start=\"2569\" data-end=\"2600\">Slowing corporate margins<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2629\" data-end=\"2670\">\n<p data-start=\"2631\" data-end=\"2670\">Rising defaults in lower-quality credit<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2629\" data-end=\"2670\">Commercial properties sold at a loss<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2672\" data-end=\"2765\">Historically, <strong data-start=\"2686\" data-end=\"2735\">major market crashes coincide with recessions<\/strong>, not just valuation concerns.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2767\" data-end=\"2844\"><strong data-start=\"2767\" data-end=\"2776\">Risk:<\/strong> A delayed or \u201crolling\u201d recession in 2026 could act as the catalyst.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2851\" data-end=\"2897\">Geopolitical and Policy Shock Potential<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2899\" data-end=\"2940\">Markets in 2026 will still be navigating:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2942\" data-end=\"3051\">\n<li data-start=\"2942\" data-end=\"2972\">\n<p data-start=\"2944\" data-end=\"2972\">US\u2013China strategic rivalry<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2973\" data-end=\"3001\">\n<p data-start=\"2975\" data-end=\"3001\">Ongoing global conflicts<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3002\" data-end=\"3051\">\n<p data-start=\"3004\" data-end=\"3051\">Trade restrictions and supply chain reshoring<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3053\" data-end=\"3149\"><strong data-start=\"3053\" data-end=\"3062\">Risk:<\/strong> A sudden geopolitical escalation or policy misstep could spark a sharp risk-off event.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"889\" data-end=\"1076\">Market Cycles<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"589\" data-end=\"887\">History often repeats. This time is no different. In 1966, the S&amp;P ended the year down 13.09%. In fact, it fall more than 22% from peak to trough during that year. This year it will happen again as market cycles repeat every 60 years.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"589\" data-end=\"887\">Chinese Astrology<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Bazi-chart.jpg\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-18876 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Bazi-chart.jpg\" alt=\"US stock market crash\" width=\"546\" height=\"483\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This is the Bazi chart of 2026. In order to ascertain whether the stock market will crash in 2026, 3 criteria have to be fulfilled together:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>No wealth element<\/li>\n<li>Metal element is being countered<\/li>\n<li>Fire element too strong<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>There is totally no wealth element in the 2026 Bazi chart. At the same time, the metal element is being countered by the strong fire element. Hence, I will expect the US stock market to end the year down. Likewise, the STI index will not be spared too.<\/p>\n<h2>Sectors that will outperform in 2026<\/h2>\n<p>Given this scenario, I expect the following sectors to do well in 2026.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Precious metals which are gold and silver will outperform the S&amp;Ping<\/li>\n<li>Energy or anything that power energy production.<\/li>\n<li>Critical minerals like Copper. I believe Copper could be the best performing asset class this year.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Many analysts and bloggers will still continue to write about AI. Yes no doubt AI is a trend we cannot ignore. But once it is overhype which it has been for the past 3 years, it will enter into a state of correction and may even burst this year.<\/p>\n<p>I don\u2019t just recommend stocks \u2014 I guide you through your entire wealth journey. Connect with me via telegram\u00a0<a class=\"connectButton\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/metaastroboy1116\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">here<\/a> for a friendly chat on how to see ahead and identify trends before others do.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Disclaimer: Please note this article is written for educational purpose only. The the stocks mentioned in this article is not a financial recommendation to buy or sell and investors need to do their own research and due diligence before investing in any stocks.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Many analysts and bloggers have posted an optimistic picture of both the US and Singapore stock market. In this article, I will be on the side of the contrarian and explain why the stock market could crash between 10% to 20% this year. Key Risk Factors That Could Trigger a Crash in 2026 1. Elevated [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":18877,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3054,3051],"tags":[3025,3026,3027,3028],"class_list":["post-18871","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-outlook-commentary-singapore","category-singapore","tag-us-market-outlook-2026","tag-stock-market-recession","tag-us-stock-market-crash-2026","tag-market-correction-vs-crash"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/36"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18871"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18871\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18882,"href":"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18871\/revisions\/18882"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18877"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smallcapasia.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}